Slammy Susan Update

Hoping to be saved from the pit of irrelevance, I had all my eggs riding on this week’s matchup with last place Bangle-Doof. As the innings fade here on the final evening of scoring, things are looking solidly W. I was saved by a somewhat less effective C. Sale on a second start as the Astros knocked him around a bit. His T. Bauer failed miserably as did my gamble on C. Paddak. I nearly lost it because of my bad waiver moves.

This next week I’m taking a flyer on B. Buxton. I think Minnesota is due for some run. They’re pretty scrappy and that’s what I look for as a metric. Hard to quantify but not hard to see when players either have the stuff or don’t. Often times I find my instincts on picking in this way are less than accurate. Carpet bombing draws a familiar parallel to my methodology up to this point. I feel like I’m getting better at recognizing trends. When teams get hot, they hit better, and that sliding percentage improves depending on the batting order, venue and so on. It’s a lot like football, but that stats go three levels deeper. They have sub metrics for damn near every aspect of gameplay. The Yahoo! league editor only lets you carry 15 statistical categories between batting and pitching, but there are twice as many choices of things to track. The data scrutiny is not a thing I have yet come to terms with. The guys who make money at daily fantasy know who to pick, on what day, and why it is a high percentage pick. Even down to the history of the individual batter’s past plate appearances versus the starting pitcher for the day… the comparisons allow for a super-informed perspective if one has the willingness to comprehend the data set in its entirety.

I am finding I continue to tune my focus; I’m working on understanding the various comparisons that might be of value. I experiment with risks in this somewhat prideless forum. Though, I am unhappy that DerpyDerpDerp is RUNNING AWAY with 1st place and has yet to be defeated. This unbelievably fortunate team is raking in several relevant offensive categories like HR, R and RBI as well as earned strikeouts for pitchers. It’s gross that I didn’t even think that team was relevant, giving in the preseason 3 of 4 ranking. Third place team, trashing me like yesterday’s pancakes.

 

Well my RP F. Vasquez just got a save to put me in the running for 1st place in terms of overall score. Not bad considering I was on the verge of losing 3 in a row. Yikes.

 

 

FMLB Reset Boop

I’m changing the scoring system in the league today. This is what I was trying to figure out with my artificial league in my first experiment with fantasy baseball. I needed to find out what day-to-day scoring looks like. The ups and downs, the flashes and fizzles… then create a league scoring system that was both competitive and fair. Based on player skills, dramatic achievements and overall consistency. I didn’t know how to score a league how I had conceived it in my mind, since I’ve never played in one before, Head-to-Head. Now that I have seen what it looks like, I noticed a few things:

  1. If I’m scoring Assists, why not Put Outs? The Put Out is the real scoring play, not the Assist. This has been added and both have been scaled.
  2. Pitchers are not getting penalized for Hits, and scoring double on Relief Wins. This stat has been eliminated.
  3. Grounding Into Double Plays is overly penalized considering its day-to-day value.
  4. Runs and Hits for batters should have their values juxtaposed.
  5. Triples should not be worth more than Home Runs.
  6. Batters should be smacked for Balks, period.
  7. OFAs are now worth 20 times more than regular Assists: degree of difficulty, yo.
  8. Other categories were scaled and balanced as well

I concluded I wanted regular offensive players to have scaling and incremental scoring over the period of the day-to-day activities. Pitchers should provide massive bursts (potentially) of scoring to push a manager over the top or projection. Pitchers can make you or break you, but without consistency you’re nothing. After much testing and deliberation, I have decided on the final settings that will carry on into perpetuity. There might be a chance that I could revise again after the season was over, but I felt it necessary to do so now in order to not diminish the season’s potential. If I held on to the same rudimentary settings all year, It would be a disappointment. If I change them now, there’s still 18 weeks of fun now that I know much more than I did when I started.

This is going to be fun!

See below for all the categories on both sides of the ball that I’;m going to be scoring. This is going to be a fiercely competitive league, with a serious threat in the league of sound defeat. Things are much more balanced than they have been for the first three weeks. Things are going to be very different now, and much more interesting.

 

FMLB Week 1: Results

A win for my team this first, very long game week. I’m starting to see a few league trends:

Strikeouts are killer at -.75

Singles and Runs should have their values juxtaposed

Some of the bonehead plays are being punished too harshly

Player value is in avoiding calamity. Catchers seem to consistently let me down, much the way the TE did in the NFL

The 1 day unlock is FUCKING AWESOME, and adds an element of difficulty that mirrors FNFL

I can see PO should have been a stat in my league

Some days are all negative, others are conveniently rocket ship

Did I mention about the strikeouts?

I just saw Dan Plesac drop a solid 35-foot putt on live tv, funny as hell how his fellow hosts reacted. Go look it up I’m not sure about the distance. They went apeshit.

NPR – Capital Public Radio PSS Article

Here I am with my first interview for a media outlet!

http://www.capradio.org/articles/2019/03/28/peer-mental-health-workers-could-become-state-certified-under-proposed-california-law/

MCU Rankings

Thor: Ragnarok

Avengers: Infinity War

Guardians of the Galaxy

Captain America: Civil War

Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2

Marvel’s The Avengers

Dr. Strange

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Ant Man and the Wasp

Ironman

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Thor: The Dark World

Black Panther

Thor

Ant Man

Ironman 2

Captain America: The First Avenger

Ironman 3

The Incredible Hulk

Spider Man: Homecoming

The ERA Equation

Fictional Fantasy Baseball – The Studyball Kurmudgeons

Rarely do I freely venture into the land of mathematics, but as that pertains to statistics, one could say there is love, not anger, death and PAIN. I’m not sure my endeavors serves any other purpose other than to fascinate my brain and make it work in a different way to figure out the solution to a problem, but regardless of notoriety, the task is noble. Back in the good ol’ days I was writing equations while manic that Excel couldn’t resolve, because they were written stupidly and abhorrently complex, ah yes, sweet memory… wait, this is a not good memory… however, I was able to do most of what I wanted, but not all. Fortunately I have found a middle ground between epiphany and practicality. The mechanism of my learning has been a logical argument within Microsoft Excel (or Google Sheets): IF/AND.

Excel allows one to look at or through data in a variety of ways, and boy is there a lot of data around Baseball. I take real 7-day MLB sums from players across the league and the results tell me something about how my own scoring configuration might balance, or scale in certain areas, as appropriate. The things that are hard to write equations for are those that modify or scale a result, or have an array of possible outcomes but somehow need to all be accounted for. Building a massive array by entering all the possible outcomes is not practical when dealing in hundreds. Equations need to be sleek, quick and able to return a sensible answer under any circumstances.

My task over the last couple of days was to make a logical equation using AND, IF or both, and try to weight the ERA over a game period like ranking the scoring/yardage surrendered by NFL team defenses. ERA becomes a scaling reward for low totals, and becomes a worthless (or a negative total) after 4. I had a similar equation already written for the NFL spreadsheet but all the values and references had to be changed.

=SUM[this is just the mechanism that will total the result as an integer]

(IF([condition/test],[result if Y],[result if N]

IF(AND[condition/test],[result if Y],(IF(AND[nested IF as negative response triggers second criteria in the next argument while building off the previous argument, as long as AND is present]

My initial equation looked like this:

=SUM(IF(D1=0,””,(IF(D1<.001,[value cell 0],(IF(D1=0,[value cell 1](AND(D1<.99,D1>.001,[value cell 2],(IF(AND(D1<1.99,D1…….. so on and so forth, moving the needle higher as the ranges of ERA are graded as they fall between one of the equations areas. But I was acting like there was a value below zero I had to be worried about, which is a product of using the equation from the NFL Fantasy Scorecard where those values are possible in the net yardage equation. After taking notice of the parameter change, I rewrote the beginning. 

There is a little “housekeeping” to settle up front, taking into account all numbers that COULD BE RENDERED on the spreadsheet. The D1, lets just say is the cell where the manual ERA will be entered on the sheet.

This specific line means, if D1 has no value in it, show nothing (represented by a text quote with no text “”) since zero is an ERA value there should be nothing to render if the cell is empty. 

After the above action, the next is to squarely assign a value to 0, since bridging ranges on it is problematic. The, the lowest value in the first range, mathematically expressed in greater-than less-than form. This can be repeated over and over, laying one on top of the other as the N condition until a result is returned.

The whole equation on the spreadsheet itself looks like this:

 

=SUM(IF(C21=“”,0,(IF(AND(C21=0),Rules!B40,(IF(AND(C21>0,C21<1),Rules!B40,(IF(AND(C21>0.99,C21<2),Rules!B41,(IF(AND(C21>1.99,C21<3),Rules!B42,(IF(AND(C21>2.99,C21<4),Rules!B43,(IF(AND(C21>3.99,C21<5),Rules!B44,(IF(AND(C21>4.99,C21<6),Rules!B45,(IF(C21>5.99,Rules!B46))))))))))))))))))

Those values triggered a result dependent on the integer in the cell, and were located on a separate page within the file:

The parallel between the NFL DEF/ST is undeniable because it is pretty much the same fucking thing. Beautiful how those two very different stats have a parallel in that scale, plus the way that can be whittled until bare at times, much like watching one’s team getting tired in the 4th quarter,defending the lead… this should give something additional for my nonexistent owners to fuss about. I wish there was someone who would fuss.

Making the equation and seeing the result it had on the scorecard was very rewarding, adding a boom-or-bust possibility to the pitcher’s slots on the roster. I like potential, and I like unexpected, crushing agony. Both remind me of how nice normal is.

 

 

Now I have a new scaling toy to play with, but another though I had is that pitchers aren’t the only ones with an ERA these days. Position players are now often used as a bullpen if a game is out of reach for example, and the manager wants to save his relief bullets. This could be hell for your average owner, when suddenly your 2B throws 17 pitches and has 4 ER with zero K, HR allowed and a 9.00 ERA!!