FMLB Reset Boop

I’m changing the scoring system in the league today. This is what I was trying to figure out with my artificial league in my first experiment with fantasy baseball. I needed to find out what day-to-day scoring looks like. The ups and downs, the flashes and fizzles… then create a league scoring system that was both competitive and fair. Based on player skills, dramatic achievements and overall consistency. I didn’t know how to score a league how I had conceived it in my mind, since I’ve never played in one before, Head-to-Head. Now that I have seen what it looks like, I noticed a few things:

  1. If I’m scoring Assists, why not Put Outs? The Put Out is the real scoring play, not the Assist. This has been added and both have been scaled.
  2. Pitchers are not getting penalized for Hits, and scoring double on Relief Wins. This stat has been eliminated.
  3. Grounding Into Double Plays is overly penalized considering its day-to-day value.
  4. Runs and Hits for batters should have their values juxtaposed.
  5. Triples should not be worth more than Home Runs.
  6. Batters should be smacked for Balks, period.
  7. OFAs are now worth 20 times more than regular Assists: degree of difficulty, yo.
  8. Other categories were scaled and balanced as well

I concluded I wanted regular offensive players to have scaling and incremental scoring over the period of the day-to-day activities. Pitchers should provide massive bursts (potentially) of scoring to push a manager over the top or projection. Pitchers can make you or break you, but without consistency you’re nothing. After much testing and deliberation, I have decided on the final settings that will carry on into perpetuity. There might be a chance that I could revise again after the season was over, but I felt it necessary to do so now in order to not diminish the season’s potential. If I held on to the same rudimentary settings all year, It would be a disappointment. If I change them now, there’s still 18 weeks of fun now that I know much more than I did when I started.

This is going to be fun!

See below for all the categories on both sides of the ball that I’;m going to be scoring. This is going to be a fiercely competitive league, with a serious threat in the league of sound defeat. Things are much more balanced than they have been for the first three weeks. Things are going to be very different now, and much more interesting.

 

FMLB Week 3 Begins With A Boof

Very bad start to my week as the injury bug is slamming me Susan like $5 flapjacks. Man, Clevenger, now Snell is gone leaving a huge hole in my rotation. I lost Bellinger to a foot injury, Mondesi isn’t even starting tonight… I mean fuck! What happened to Bryce Fucking Harper? I’m also trying to guess if I missed out on Flaherty getting hot for Corbin instead. I could be fucked.

The scores are relatively close, but against any other team I’d be demolished. I have negatives in to roster slots after 2 days of action. Out of 7. Sigh.

Been down this road before, but it does bite a bit to be in line to lose to FaceMaster V. I’m never going to hear the fucking end of it. He’s intolerable enough as he is. Even if he’s 0-for-the-next-whatever, he’s lording this over me until the end of time regardless. I’d like for there to be some realization that I have a stacked team full of players that could, at the drop of a hat, break out for 50+. My starters are valuable but will be depleted after losing two of my best this week. Snell dropped something heavy on his toe… like a big pole made of granite or some shit. I’m looking at that 10-day DL tag going “yeah fucking right, he’s going on the 60-day DL after the x-rays come back. I’m going to find a way to play the waivers, like I have in the past. I’m not nearly as effective at the baseball waiver scene as I was with the NFL. My player knowledge is still growing.

****

Update: Arenado, Ozuna hit HR with peeps on the pillows. 3 DPT. Contreras at -3.75. I mean fuck. 2 K, 1 GIDP. Fucking catchers. It’s like the NFL TE roster spot of the FMLB universe.

FMLB Week 2: Final

Slammy Jammy emerged a massive winner over this week’s opponent: DerpyDerpDerp. Shortstops are coming through as anticipated but for peers, not because of the assists. This also has me pondering the Put Out stat again for next year. I like awarding points on relevant plays and PO is a star that has to be kept. It’s a part of infield mechanics.

I’ve hit a lot of home runs so far, plus fielding a shitload of modular infielders makes even the OF roster spot more viable. Bellinger is a good example of that flexed infielder in my OF slot. I had Story, Turner, Lindor and Mondesi to start the year and they went: mediocre, disabled, disabled and raking, respectively. Freeman and Arenado on the corners have largely been a let down but never count those guys out for long. Nolan looks like he’s getting hot again.

My pitching got slammed opening day but has suffered Clevenger on the extended DL. I had Snell put in a good start with Osuna and Trienen showing potential in relief. I’ve been whammy whammed with injuries so far, while all the other teams are doing fine in that regard.

I can’t wait to check out the record book tomorrow after the scores go final. They track some cool statistical accomplishments on the site. I’ll post a few tomorrow.

2-0 and my roster moves for tomorrow are pending. Probably going to shuffle a couple spots since I lost a pitcher.

FMLB Week 1: Results

A win for my team this first, very long game week. I’m starting to see a few league trends:

Strikeouts are killer at -.75

Singles and Runs should have their values juxtaposed

Some of the bonehead plays are being punished too harshly

Player value is in avoiding calamity. Catchers seem to consistently let me down, much the way the TE did in the NFL

The 1 day unlock is FUCKING AWESOME, and adds an element of difficulty that mirrors FNFL

I can see PO should have been a stat in my league

Some days are all negative, others are conveniently rocket ship

Did I mention about the strikeouts?

I just saw Dan Plesac drop a solid 35-foot putt on live tv, funny as hell how his fellow hosts reacted. Go look it up I’m not sure about the distance. They went apeshit.

First Glance: FMLB Week 1

This is my first season with FMLB and I must say it is hugely gratifying. To have numbers coming in all day long, days and days in a row, is insane. I remember the angst of having to wait until Thursday, Sunday or Monday to get the game-face on and start assessing my outcomes. In this format, outcomes are fluid. I sometimes think I’m being roasted alive, and at other moments, I’m rocketing away with high-scoring events. Both mediums present challenges for my patience, but they have entertained to a significant degree, and much more than I was expecting at the onset.

Some of the things I noticed based on the scoring system I set up: rewards and punishments are harsh. If the player is having an off day, it can be crippling. Alternatively, if your player is 2/3 with 2 HR and 4 RBI, you’re in a good way going forward. Mistakes are not wrist slaps but face-hammers… which can be hard to deal with but at the same time it raises the stakes and makes things more volatile. Injuries are terrible. In Rotisserie, I’ve determined that the midpoint Monday is roster-shift day in the set game week (Maybe true of the first week only since it is longer), but if your guy goes down, he’s locked on the roster card for many more days of zero.

So far my hot hot picks for my primary team include Oakland’s closer Treinen, Alberto Mondesi and Cody Bellinger. Flops include Zack Greinke, Nolan Arenado and Marcell Ozuna. The latter of which has yet to post a positive integer game-week total.

Really though, this is a way I am taking care of myself. I’m not dependent on others to have fun (since no one is into what I like to do) and I enjoy making my own games and stakes. I can’t count on anyone to take care of my needs or wants… it is entirely up to me. As it should be frankly. I’m tired of this war with others where I’m inevitably let down by waning interest or changing circumstance. This time, the fun is all mine.

The ERA Equation

Fictional Fantasy Baseball – The Studyball Kurmudgeons

Rarely do I freely venture into the land of mathematics, but as that pertains to statistics, one could say there is love, not anger, death and PAIN. I’m not sure my endeavors serves any other purpose other than to fascinate my brain and make it work in a different way to figure out the solution to a problem, but regardless of notoriety, the task is noble. Back in the good ol’ days I was writing equations while manic that Excel couldn’t resolve, because they were written stupidly and abhorrently complex, ah yes, sweet memory… wait, this is a not good memory… however, I was able to do most of what I wanted, but not all. Fortunately I have found a middle ground between epiphany and practicality. The mechanism of my learning has been a logical argument within Microsoft Excel (or Google Sheets): IF/AND.

Excel allows one to look at or through data in a variety of ways, and boy is there a lot of data around Baseball. I take real 7-day MLB sums from players across the league and the results tell me something about how my own scoring configuration might balance, or scale in certain areas, as appropriate. The things that are hard to write equations for are those that modify or scale a result, or have an array of possible outcomes but somehow need to all be accounted for. Building a massive array by entering all the possible outcomes is not practical when dealing in hundreds. Equations need to be sleek, quick and able to return a sensible answer under any circumstances.

My task over the last couple of days was to make a logical equation using AND, IF or both, and try to weight the ERA over a game period like ranking the scoring/yardage surrendered by NFL team defenses. ERA becomes a scaling reward for low totals, and becomes a worthless (or a negative total) after 4. I had a similar equation already written for the NFL spreadsheet but all the values and references had to be changed.

=SUM[this is just the mechanism that will total the result as an integer]

(IF([condition/test],[result if Y],[result if N]

IF(AND[condition/test],[result if Y],(IF(AND[nested IF as negative response triggers second criteria in the next argument while building off the previous argument, as long as AND is present]

My initial equation looked like this:

=SUM(IF(D1=0,””,(IF(D1<.001,[value cell 0],(IF(D1=0,[value cell 1](AND(D1<.99,D1>.001,[value cell 2],(IF(AND(D1<1.99,D1…….. so on and so forth, moving the needle higher as the ranges of ERA are graded as they fall between one of the equations areas. But I was acting like there was a value below zero I had to be worried about, which is a product of using the equation from the NFL Fantasy Scorecard where those values are possible in the net yardage equation. After taking notice of the parameter change, I rewrote the beginning. 

There is a little “housekeeping” to settle up front, taking into account all numbers that COULD BE RENDERED on the spreadsheet. The D1, lets just say is the cell where the manual ERA will be entered on the sheet.

This specific line means, if D1 has no value in it, show nothing (represented by a text quote with no text “”) since zero is an ERA value there should be nothing to render if the cell is empty. 

After the above action, the next is to squarely assign a value to 0, since bridging ranges on it is problematic. The, the lowest value in the first range, mathematically expressed in greater-than less-than form. This can be repeated over and over, laying one on top of the other as the N condition until a result is returned.

The whole equation on the spreadsheet itself looks like this:

 

=SUM(IF(C21=“”,0,(IF(AND(C21=0),Rules!B40,(IF(AND(C21>0,C21<1),Rules!B40,(IF(AND(C21>0.99,C21<2),Rules!B41,(IF(AND(C21>1.99,C21<3),Rules!B42,(IF(AND(C21>2.99,C21<4),Rules!B43,(IF(AND(C21>3.99,C21<5),Rules!B44,(IF(AND(C21>4.99,C21<6),Rules!B45,(IF(C21>5.99,Rules!B46))))))))))))))))))

Those values triggered a result dependent on the integer in the cell, and were located on a separate page within the file:

The parallel between the NFL DEF/ST is undeniable because it is pretty much the same fucking thing. Beautiful how those two very different stats have a parallel in that scale, plus the way that can be whittled until bare at times, much like watching one’s team getting tired in the 4th quarter,defending the lead… this should give something additional for my nonexistent owners to fuss about. I wish there was someone who would fuss.

Making the equation and seeing the result it had on the scorecard was very rewarding, adding a boom-or-bust possibility to the pitcher’s slots on the roster. I like potential, and I like unexpected, crushing agony. Both remind me of how nice normal is.

 

 

Now I have a new scaling toy to play with, but another though I had is that pitchers aren’t the only ones with an ERA these days. Position players are now often used as a bullpen if a game is out of reach for example, and the manager wants to save his relief bullets. This could be hell for your average owner, when suddenly your 2B throws 17 pitches and has 4 ER with zero K, HR allowed and a 9.00 ERA!!

The Studyball Kurmudgeons: Fantasy Baseball League?

I know I have said at other times that I was “satisfied” with the tinkering of the scoring. I wanted to do a “past 7 days” filter so I could see what a scoring summary might look like for that interval. I had whole season numbers, but I wanted the Head-to-Head games to be competitive, not boring and incrementally relevant despite the season’s length. I saw what a above average season point output would look like, and there were clearly some areas that needed adjusting.opportunity to scale some things back. The I ran a new set of season numbers with mid level talent and tinkered with the balance some more.

The latest set of numbers came from a pretty high-output names, and some not so much. I think this latest tinkering is the best to date, since I am very concerned with the individual games not being monotonous. I also added a handful of “high level” achievement in the game, like a grand slam, a no hitter… etc.

The overall model is balanced enough to keep things competitive among similarly knowledgeable players, mind you. The bonus FPs from a big play is probably enough to lift someone who is trailing late, or crush your foe into the turf with a massive play that sets you on the path to victory.

Let me first show you the scorecard, which was totally redone as of last time I wrote about it.

 

 

 

 

95% of that is real data from active players over the last week, and it helped me to see where the final adjustments to the scoring were to be made. With the recent live-data scenario, I can say that the current scoring setup promotes intense and interesting games, and that’s the main point. Here are the (maybe) final scoring tweaks.

 

Clearly position players other than pitchers do well in this mode, but the pitchers come out looking like NFL fantasy quarterbacks. When they’re hot, they’re lighting everyone up and things are generally: yay! When they’re not, they become a vast, expanding black hole consuming all nearby fantasy points if they stray too close.

 

Big plays get rewarded, sometimes massively. Emongously. Trabookafred!

 

 

Maybe one day I might run this league… probably not though.

It’s just fun to think about.

Another, differently shaped golden trophy would look nice in my castle.