Playoffs

So now I am in the post season in both leagues. In the family league, its championship time. I’m in, but I lost Gordon right in the home stretch so I’m basically fucked. I needed him back this week against Cleveland. So I’m going to lose out on a huge chunk that I need to build a lead. I barely survived round 1. I’m not going to get lucky twice in the same season. It’s not even a remote possibility that my scrubs will post a higher score than his. He has New England’s defense and that one is sure to go off. He also has Tom Brady, Tod Gurley with a juicy match up, Thomas Rawls, Jordy Nelson. I could go on. Justin Tucker. Ok. So I have to climb over some ridiculous average scores. I have no one that competes with them by position with the exception of Bell. My TE has been a disaster all year. I’m making a move this week for one because I don’t trust Ebron anymore. My WR position doesn’t consistently produce for PPR the way I had hoped. Crabtree has dropped 17 passes. So far. And I’m probably stuck starting him this week. He and his drops. Dropped balls in the championship are killer, and could cost you the crown. No doubt. It’s happened to me before. 

I give my logical effort to play the lineup I think will do the best, and just let it go. I’ve won before. I know how great that is. I had an inkling I would win last year but stayed humble. Now I’m sure I will be eliminated I feel somewhat liberated from pressure. I feel like I should strive to win while knowing that goal may not be achievable. When the ratios are aligned against you, victory is long gone. I am thinking there is a 10% chance I will win after having looked over the two weeks we play. He has just st so many choice matchups, and I’m missing out on one of my best. My best is probably done for the season. I realize the reality of my situation, and we are moving on. I’m being very Klingon about all this. “Perhaps today IS a good day to die!”

At work my lineup is stronger. I’m in the semifinals. I have little concern for the work league to be honest. I can’t beat Tony no matter how hard I try. I’ve thrown everything at him to no avail. Will he go 4-0 against me? Last time this happened, I went 3-0 against him but lost in the championship. It may well shape up to that very scenario, but not end the same way. I think he will thoroughly kick my ass with his super-team if I get past the first round. Tubby has no shot. Points aren’t there. Joseph (my opponent) has taken some hits. His lineup has been underperforming, but then again, so has mine. Mine even to a more severe extent I contend. So I may be out by the conclusion of Sunday. Christmas Day playoff elimination doubleheader. 

In truth, I’ve been only using football as a crutch. I have just had no other things I was doing rather than football. Recently I started gaming again. I’ve been exercising. I’m trying to diversify. So yeah I’m playing this year, but I’m not committed to it as I have been in the past. There’s just so much going on right now. And I get to be with family this weekend and Amanda too. Christmas is almost here. I’m being buried alive in debt. I’m alive. The world is going on all around me. I want to be a part of life. I don’t really have much concern about football right now. Survival is the priority. Things are improving. Goodnight. 

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Last-Minute Happies

Score: +2

It was a slow day preceded by me vomiting. Not a great activity for 2:45 am. So I was up way too fucking early. I drove to work and proceeded to line myself up for a 9.5 hour day. Pretty stupid. Plus I also was tired and felt really dead. It was not a great day. I was in on this timer meeting which was largely over my head but I took a ton of notes nonetheless. I’m hopeful that Tuesday doesn’t start with barf and end with me feeling pooped. But even though I felt bad, I still did my mile. I had gotten out of form, so it was more challenging than it should have been. Bah. New day tomorrow. 

Like I had mentioned in previous posts, the FFL season is winding to a close. I gained a 23 point advantage in game 1 of 2 in the first round of the playoffs. I also narrowly squeaked out a victory in the work league by a razor thin margin. Literally won it on a meaningless 8 yard pass play to Edelman with only a few minutes left. Fluky. But I’m glad to have the win and not a narrow defeat. It’s largely irrelevant anyway in that league. 

I’m tired and going to bed. There’s all sorts of other things going on, but I’m in no place to dive into them. My mental state is south of reasonable. Goodnight for now. 

Top Score

It’s nearing the end of NFL Sunday and I’m still quite undecided as to my FFL fate. I have opposing players going tonight that greatly concern me. Namely Zeeke Elliot. He could go for 200 like it was nothing. So if he does, I’m sunk. If he is mediocre, I might just build a strong lead headed into game 2 of round 1. I lead in both leagues, both with Edelman going Monday night as insurance. I really hope this works out. Why all of a sudden? Because I would be riding on the back of the single greatest player performance of the year. Le’Veon Bell’s line today: 38 carries, 236 yards rushing, three rushing touchdowns, four catches, 64 receiving yards. 61 fantasy points. Record setting performance, one for the ages. Nearly 300 yards of offense. Unbelievable. So I lost Gordon today too. Bell helps augment my suffering. I hear that the injury is not severe, so hopefully he gets back to cutting and sprinting soon. Only 3 games left in the season. I have no one I can replace him with who has a chance at his volume. But Martin should fill in at least for next week. I’m tired of betting on wide receivers. Fucking impossible. I can’t guess for shit on right ends either. I’ve got to have the lowest output from the TE slot in the entire league this season. I have little doubt. But anyway. Wish me luck. 

The Playoffs!!!

It’s getting down to the last 4 weeks of the regular season and fantasy football 2016 is coming to a close. Despite my low expectations, I have once again clinched the playoffs for the fourth year in a row. In the family league the playoffs have begun and I finished the season with an 8-5 record. Each playoff round in the family league lasts two weeks, so it’s significantly more difficult to achieve victory since your foe gets two chances to knock you down. Winning 4 weeks in a row to clinch the championship is precisely what I did last year, but I have about a 15% probability of repeating that feat. My wide receivers are substandard… but I have a strong ground game, which has carried me this far. I need exemplary performances from below-average players in order to advance, and that is asking an awful lot from the fantasy football gods. The gods have rarely been forgiving, but sometimes they are. Either way, I don’t think I have much shot at it in the family league.

In the work league, the regular season is still trucking right along and into next week as well. We play 1 week per round and we most certainly play week 17. No football is omitted regardless of status of starting players. Good fantasy football is built around two skills: ability to select talent during the draft and ability to see talent on the free agent market and capitalize with waiver moves. So making some last minute streaming waiver transactions is exactly what fantasy football is about, and we should all be capable of assessing free agent talent based on matchups (at least). Therefore, making waiver substitutions for starting players on week 17 is business as usual, and even more of a challenge to overcome to achieve victory. I likes me a good challenge. Both my leagues play on week 17 during the most critical game of the season. High stakes, high risk, huge reward.

At work I’m 9-4 and have clinched a playoff spot (currently in 3rd place). I was in first place last year in both leagues heading into the playoffs. I’m thinking I have a real shot at the championship again at work. My running game is fucking stellar, and my wide receivers are at least mediocre. I have a soft schedule in the matchup department for several players, including my two biggest point scorers (Gordon and Bell) facing at least two bottom 10 defenses in the last 4 weeks of the season. Right when I will need a big performance most I have the highest likelihood of getting one… or at least, that’s the theory. I have big matchups mostly week 16, but a couple that carry over into week 17. In the family league (the one I particularly would like to win), a big performance week 16 could provide me with enough cushion to secure it even mid way through week 17 (unless I were to seriously implode week 17 [<— very possible]).

But my point is, hey, I just took the crown in both leagues last year, and here I am back in the playoff picture the following season. Above expectation. I had a rock solid draft, have made some dynamite waiver moves, and basically played the same way I did last year: not overthinking it, sticking to the basics and trusting the initial instinctual impulse. It has paid off with a return to relevancy once again. Even in the event that I end up battling for third place, I will still have proven that my victories, and constant presence in the playoffs is no fluke. I really do know what I’m doing. It’s not even as hard as we seem to all think it is. I’m not saying I’m phenomenal by any stretch, but I do have a talent for this.

But the family league this year might be out of reach. I sense an early demise at the hands of a significantly more well armed team. I don’t have the best matchups this week, a lot of stuff that could really go either way. That’s the type that’s hardest to assess, since the factors don’t favor any particular outcome. Those are the matchups that get decided by that initial instinct, and a lot of times they work out for me. Frankly, more often than not. Off waivers, I started Carson Wentz and he put up 20, Jaquizz Rodgers and he put up 154 yards and Steffon Diggs, who put up 13 receptions. I’m keen on things sometimes. But then again, I started Ebron and he goose egged me, and Crabtree hit me once for 3.5 early in the season and again this last week for 6.1. Sigh. Sometimes you knock it out of the park… other times, you whiff like a novice.

Ok blog, you are now caught up on the status of my FFL world. Wish me luck!

Week 12

It’s a pivotal week in the family league. The playoff push is well underway, but now it’s time to seal the deal. I need to win my last two games and hit the postseason with the same record I had last year. Pretty shocking considering I won the championship in 2015. 

Anyway, my gambles are WR and RB. I’m starting L. Bell, M. Gordon and D. Martin. Doug is the one I’m worried about, considering he has to run against a good Seattle defense and there’s no certainty he will have much space to rumble. I need a solid 20 out of him like I got last week. WR is another story. I have two slots for three recivers: S. Diggs, D. Thomas and J. Edelman. Right now Edelman and Thomas are in with the idea that because this is PPR they look like higher-floor options. Diggs is hurt right now and not practicing so he’s no lock for Sunday at all. He let me down last week too. 

Projections have me very far above average but I never believe them. They have limited relevance. I just look at my matchups, which I like, and hope his aren’t better. It’s the commissioner of the league I’m playing this week, and I need to avenge the ass kicking I received at our first meeting. 

For defense I had a choice between Baltimore at home vs Cincinnati, or Green Bay at Philly on a Monday night. I like Baltimore better because Cincinnati just lost 46% of their offense to injury and that will lower the point scoring potential. Baltimore needs a redemption game after last weeks debacle, and I think they will get it. 

So the future looks better than it did last week, but this team I’m going up against is damn good. They are in first for a good reason. I just hope for another above average day and a W if I can get it. 

Surprisingly Springy

Score: +3

So it was a Monday after a fun weekend. Amanda even spent the night, however, this meant we were both up and at ’em today at 4:00. She wanted to not be alone so it was worth it. She’s been having a rough go of it. Really fighting for her rights. She has a good shot at getting what she’s looking for. But we’re not there yet. 

Life in general has somewhat stabilized. I’m going to be writing my first rent check in a few days. So that’s good. It helps also that I will have the money. Indeed. I’m just going to keep plugging away and expanding the department. I’m doing good in all three phases right now. I’m helping Amanda as much as I can. Doing the best I am able to hold it all together myself. I was in a low spot only a few days ago. But I survived it, and got back in track. And good thing to since it was a busy Monday. But I was springy this morning, meaning that I had good energy right from the start. 

I’m trying to establish a good pattern. I think things are much better now. 

In FFL my win is Michael Crabtree and 13 or more points. Chances of that happening, really really low. So it looks more like a 1-1 week instead of a 2-0. I was on a four game win streak which I will be sad to see be broken, if indeed Crabtree is bottled up all night. Houston’s pass defense is no joke, but one of the two wideouts is going to get more targets, and who is still a mystery. So it is possible that Crabtree is the one getting open, but less likely considering his competition, Cooper. Anything is possible in football. But football bends to no man’s will. And I have learned over time to expect more often the cruel butt cheek of dashed dreams rather that the beacon of hope and joy that is miraculous victory. I stopped hoping after I lost that third championship by 1.5 fantasy points. Then I got real and said, “not only does it not mind if you lose, but will gladly give you a shove on your way down into ruin.” So I stopped letting it get over on me, and it has truly crushed my desire to hope for a fantasy football outcome forever. So tonight is about living with the reality of 7-4, and a demotion to fourth place. Not terrible, but not headed in the right direction. Tomorrow will be Tuesday, and life will go on. The end. 

Week 11

So it’s getting closer to the end of the fantasy football season, and in the league where it counts I’m in 3rd place, and in (for now). Last year I went 9-2 and lost my last two. This year I’m 7-3 with three games to go and, like I said, it is within the realm of possibility that I would set my all time best record mark, adding that to my accomplishment of the 2nd highest single game score in league history (6 seasons) already this year. I was not expecting to make the playoffs drafting 8th, and still may not if I lose my next three. But regardless, my team is pretty good. They’ve propelled me to four straight wins with some bigtime scores. Although my game with David was decided in my favor by .3 points. It’s been that kind of season. I only cost myself one game so far to making moves right before kickoff. Left the win on my bench. This is why I preach the gospel of “don’t overthink it.” It’s worked wonders for me. Got me two championships last year. 

I’m hoping that somehow Crabtree gets a good matchup that Carr can exploit all day. That’s a tough secondary, but the Raiders are good. That’s a fact. Hopefully it’s not all about Oakland running the ball like it was before the bye. Luckily he was on my bench. In both leagues. 

The work league I don’t pay much mind to, as 3 teams don’t play. 7-3 there with weaker wide receivers but stronger running backs. Had been peddling 4 RBs most weeks. Just now flopped over to two QB. I figured, Dak and Cam? What could go wrong? Both have good motivation to play their guts out, and that’s just the sort of motivation I mean to capitalize on. Determined players don’t go down on first contact, they keep chugging. They move the fucking pile. Or like Bell, wait till the linebackers suck up to the line of scrimmage then bounce a fatty to the outside. 25 yards, just like that. Boy is he fun to watch. 

Anyway. This week at work I play a derelict team without a full starting lineup. Ian the quitter/cheater did not come back after losing to yours truly in the championship. So he let his team drift like plastic in the ocean. In the family/money league, I go against the 8th place team, of which there is still a strong possibility that I will lose. We both have good matchups this week, but some of his look like they could explode. Anyway, I’m still a constant skeptic. I’ve seen some pretty remarkable things in my time. It’s never over until is OVER. Q4 00:00. That’s when you can have your champagne.